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PTA is definitely oversupply in the future!

Update:04-08-2016
Summary:

The constant change of the PTA trade model has evolved […]

The constant change of the PTA trade model has evolved from the original unilateral game mode to the current 95% basis basis trading model. The whole industry chain participates in futures, and truly realizes and exerts the PTA futures to find the forward price to avoid market risks. effect.

For the PTA industry, there will definitely be a situation of oversupply. It is foreseeable that the processing fee will be greatly compressed, and the difficulty of inventory management will increase. Some PTA devices with low marginal cost and low cost may be eliminated.

The production profit of PTA production enterprises is very good this year. The average processing fee of PTA in January-August 2019 is about 1,250 yuan/ton, except for the production cost of about 550/ton, which basically maintains a profit of 700 yuan/ton per ton. It is expected to maintain a processing fee of 800-1000 yuan/ton before the new capacity is put into production.

Manufacturers buy long-term PX to sell medium and long-term contracts in the PTA futures market, locking in processing fees.

When the factory receives such an order, it will often buy the most suitable futures contract corresponding to the order on the futures disk, so as to achieve the purpose of locking the processing fee and achieve stable production.

When the PTA price is relatively high, the PTA producer sells the goods to the trader. When the trader buys the spot, the trader sells the corresponding contract in the futures market with a certain basis. When the PTA price falls, the trader sells. Spot, and buy the corresponding contract in the futures market below the basis of buying the spot, the difference between the two sides of the buy and sell is the trader's profit, achieving a three-way win-win situation.

The macro determines the direction and the fundamentals determine the magnitude. There is no big brother in the market forever. The final decision on the market trend must be supply and demand and cost.

The final PTA pricing power is still determined by market supply and demand.

Doing a good balance of supply and demand balance analysis is the most important basis for judging the market.

I personally hold a view on the price trend of the next stage PTA. In terms of cost, there is a lack of cost support in the medium and long term; in terms of supply, it causes huge accumulation; in terms of demand, the annual Spring Festival is the time when the polyester production is shut down and the operating rate is the lowest, and the market lacks demand.

The long-term supply in MEG is not very optimistic, and demand will also weaken at the beginning of the year. The MEG2005 contract above 5000 may be safer.

The basic aspect of the PTA industry is mainly to add a macroscopic analysis of the three major aspects of cost, supply and demand.

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